Home Values Fell in 10 States. All 50 Are Still Up Over Five Years.
The typical home is worth less than a year ago in 10 states, led by Nevada (−1.8%). It is worth more than five years ago in every one of them, and in all 50 states. 9 of the 10 falling states are cool or cold markets.
By America's Dashboard · 6 sections · Figures from the latest public releases
Falling this year, up over five
The typical home is worth less than it was a year ago in 10 states: Nevada, Texas, Florida, Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, Kentucky, Washington, Oregon, and North Carolina. Every one of them is still worth more than it was five years ago. So is every other state. Nationally, the typical home value is +1.2% over the past year and +20.3% over five. Two caveats on the count: Oregon (−0.05%) and North Carolina (−0.03%) are down by less than a tenth of a percent, which is flat for any practical purpose. Strictly, 10 states fell; 8 fell by more than a rounding error.
The two numbers answer different questions. The one-year change says which way values are moving now. The five-year change says whether someone who bought five years ago would sell for less than they paid. In no state would the typical owner. A cooling market and a return to old prices are not the same thing, and right now the country has a lot of the first and none of the second.
Every figure here is the typical home value in each state, the middle third of single-family homes and condos, in August against the same month one and five years earlier. All changes are in dollars, not adjusted for inflation, and every state is measured over exactly the same months.
The 10 states where values are falling
Nevada has the steepest one-year drop at −1.8%, followed by Texas (−1.6%) and Florida (−1.5%). None is a crash. The largest decline on the list is under 2%, and Nevada is still +15.6% over five years. Texas's typical home value is at its lowest level since March 2022, so its five-year gain of +11.1% was mostly built before then.
Most of the falling states have a large cushion. Florida, with the 3rd-steepest decline, is still +20.3% over five years, the same as the national gain. Kentucky is down 0.4% on the year and +25.1% over five. At the other end, Colorado is down 1.4% on the year with only +6.8% over five. Arizona is 9.6% below its July 2022 peak, the furthest of any state, and still +9.1% over five years, because the run-up to that peak was bigger than the decline since.
Every falling state is in the South or the West; not one is in the Midwest or the Northeast. As a group they also gained less over five years: the median falling state is +13.3% over five years, against +24.9% for the other 40. Most of the decline is happening in places where the run-up was already smaller.
| # | State | Past year | Five years | Below peak | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nevada | −1.8% | +15.6% | 4.3% | Cool |
| 2 | Texas | −1.6% | +11.1% | 6.1% | Cool |
| 3 | Florida | −1.5% | +20.3% | 7.2% | Warm |
| 4 | Colorado | −1.4% | +6.8% | 7.1% | Cool |
| 5 | Arizona | −1.1% | +9.1% | 9.6% | Cold |
| 6 | Georgia | −0.5% | +22.2% | 2.8% | Cold |
| 7 | Kentucky | −0.4% | +25.1% | 0.9% | Cool |
| 8 | Washington | −0.3% | +11.1% | 2.8% | Cool |
| 9 | Oregon | −0.05% | +7.7% | 3.6% | Cool |
| 10 | North Carolina | −0.03% | +23.2% | 1.2% | Cold |
Hot, warm, cool or cold: what the market says now
Price change tells you what already happened. Market temperature is about who has leverage this month. We compare each state with the national market on three signals: the share of listings with a price cut (26.4% nationally), the average days from listing to a pending sale (53 nationally), and whether the number of homes for sale is up from a year ago. A state with none of the three pointing cooler than the nation is hot, one is warm, two is cool, and all three is cold.
By that measure, 2 states are hot, 21 are warm, 20 are cool and 7 are cold. The temperature lines up with the price direction, but loosely. 9 of the 10 falling states are cool or cold markets. The exception is Florida, which is warm: only one signal, slower sales, points cooler than the national market, even though values there are down 1.5% on the year. Overall, 9 of the 27 cool or cold states are falling, against 1 of the 23 hot or warm ones.
Cold does not mean falling. 4 of the 7 cold states are still up on the year, led by Oklahoma at +2.8%. Buyers there have more listings, more price cuts and more time than buyers nationally, and values are still rising, just slowly. Hot does not mean surging either. California (+0.4%) and North Dakota (+5.2%) are the two hot markets, and California's typical home value has barely moved in a year. The fastest one-year gain among the warm markets is New York at +5.6%.
The median cold state is +0.7% over the past year, the median cool state +2.0%, and the median warm state +2.9%. Buyers have more leverage than the national market in 27 states, and prices there have followed only at the margin.
| Market | Signals cooler than US | States | Falling | Median past year | Median five years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot | 0 of 3 | 2 | 0 | +2.8% | +16.4% |
| Warm | 1 of 3 | 21 | 1 | +2.9% | +26.1% |
| Cool | 2 of 3 | 20 | 6 | +2.0% | +19.5% |
| Cold | 3 of 3 | 7 | 3 | +0.7% | +23.2% |
Where the five-year gain is thinnest
Louisiana is the state closest to its level five years ago, at +1.1%, and it isn't one of the falling states: values there are +2.1% over the past year. Idaho (+6.2%), Colorado (+6.8%), Oregon (+7.7%), Arizona (+9.1%), and Washington (+11.1%) round out the six smallest five-year gains, and Colorado, Oregon, Arizona, and Washington are also falling this year.
The biggest five-year gains are in Connecticut (+40.3%), New Hampshire (+35.6%), New Jersey (+35.4%), Rhode Island (+33.6%), and Wisconsin (+31.1%). None of them is falling now; all five are still climbing. 27 states hit a new all-time high in August, and none of the falling states is among them.
These are nominal values. Consumer prices also rose by double digits over the same five years, so in the states with the smallest gains, the typical home has lost ground after inflation even though its dollar value is up. That is a real loss of purchasing power for an owner. It is not the same as owing more than the house is worth.
What these numbers don't tell you
The typical home value is a modeled index of the middle third of homes in a state, smoothed and seasonally adjusted. It is not the sale price of any home, and it is not your home. A state that is down on the year can have metros falling faster and neighborhoods still rising. The state's page on this site lists values for its tracked cities.
Five years is an arbitrary line. A buyer from four years ago, near Arizona's July 2022 peak, has a different story than a buyer from five. Each state's housing page shows its full monthly history since 2000 and its peak, so you can pick your own starting month.
And the temperature is a comparison with the national market this month, not a forecast. Three signals pointing cooler say buyers have more room to negotiate than buyers elsewhere. They don't say where prices go next.
Every state, one year against five
All 50 states, sorted from the largest one-year decline to the largest gain. The typical home value is for August; both changes end in the same month.
| # | State | Typical home value | Past year | Five years | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nevada | $442,027 | −1.8% | +15.6% | Cool |
| 2 | Texas | $299,367 | −1.6% | +11.1% | Cool |
| 3 | Florida | $375,470 | −1.5% | +20.3% | Warm |
| 4 | Colorado | $532,748 | −1.4% | +6.8% | Cool |
| 5 | Arizona | $417,990 | −1.1% | +9.1% | Cold |
| 6 | Georgia | $330,817 | −0.5% | +22.2% | Cold |
| 7 | Kentucky | $232,577 | −0.4% | +25.1% | Cool |
| 8 | Washington | $591,879 | −0.3% | +11.1% | Cool |
| 9 | Oregon | $496,113 | −0.05% | +7.7% | Cool |
| 10 | North Carolina | $334,773 | −0.03% | +23.2% | Cold |
| 11 | Maryland | $428,308 | +0.02% | +13.5% | Cool |
| 12 | California | $764,158 | +0.4% | +13.9% | Hot |
| 13 | Tennessee | $334,108 | +0.7% | +24.8% | Cold |
| 14 | South Carolina | $306,323 | +1.0% | +25.0% | Cold |
| 15 | Vermont | $399,053 | +1.0% | +18.1% | Warm |
| 16 | Hawaii | $833,340 | +1.1% | +16.1% | Warm |
| 17 | Delaware | $406,074 | +1.3% | +21.4% | Cool |
| 18 | Wyoming | $371,854 | +1.4% | +25.1% | Warm |
| 19 | Utah | $534,582 | +1.5% | +13.8% | Cold |
| 20 | Maine | $415,552 | +1.6% | +27.5% | Warm |
| 21 | New Mexico | $318,241 | +1.7% | +25.9% | Cool |
| 22 | Alabama | $241,613 | +1.9% | +17.7% | Cool |
| 23 | Idaho | $478,744 | +2.0% | +6.2% | Warm |
| 24 | Montana | $471,746 | +2.0% | +25.0% | Warm |
| 25 | Louisiana | $217,039 | +2.1% | +1.1% | Warm |
| 26 | Virginia | $414,662 | +2.2% | +23.4% | Cool |
| 27 | Mississippi | $197,606 | +2.3% | +12.5% | Cool |
| 28 | Massachusetts | $661,896 | +2.3% | +25.3% | Warm |
| 29 | Pennsylvania | $290,401 | +2.4% | +22.3% | Warm |
| 30 | Minnesota | $350,752 | +2.5% | +14.1% | Cool |
| 31 | South Dakota | $321,574 | +2.5% | +24.2% | Cool |
| 32 | Oklahoma | $223,261 | +2.8% | +26.5% | Cold |
| 33 | New Hampshire | $516,306 | +2.9% | +35.6% | Warm |
| 34 | Indiana | $260,095 | +3.0% | +28.9% | Cool |
| 35 | West Virginia | $179,496 | +3.1% | +22.5% | Warm |
| 36 | Nebraska | $280,673 | +3.1% | +25.6% | Cool |
| 37 | Ohio | $248,803 | +3.4% | +29.2% | Cool |
| 38 | Rhode Island | $511,233 | +3.4% | +33.6% | Warm |
| 39 | Missouri | $267,879 | +3.5% | +26.2% | Warm |
| 40 | Iowa | $239,547 | +3.5% | +26.1% | Warm |
| 41 | Arkansas | $227,264 | +3.6% | +21.2% | Cool |
| 42 | Kansas | $249,603 | +3.8% | +30.3% | Warm |
| 43 | New Jersey | $580,353 | +3.9% | +35.4% | Warm |
| 44 | Michigan | $266,292 | +4.0% | +24.1% | Cool |
| 45 | Connecticut | $450,873 | +5.0% | +40.3% | Warm |
| 46 | Wisconsin | $339,699 | +5.1% | +31.1% | Warm |
| 47 | North Dakota | $292,293 | +5.2% | +19.0% | Hot |
| 48 | Illinois | $297,573 | +5.3% | +29.1% | Warm |
| 49 | New York | $526,714 | +5.6% | +29.5% | Warm |
| 50 | Alaska | $398,663 | +5.7% | +17.6% | Cool |
Frequently Asked Questions
Are home values falling in the US?
Not nationally. The typical US home value is +1.2% over the past year and +20.3% over five years. Values are lower than a year ago in 10 states, led by Nevada at −1.8%, and higher than five years ago in all 50.
Which states have falling home values?
Nevada (−1.8%), Texas (−1.6%), Florida (−1.5%), Colorado (−1.4%), Arizona (−1.1%), Georgia (−0.5%), Kentucky (−0.4%), Washington (−0.3%), Oregon (−0.05%), and North Carolina (−0.03%), comparing the typical home value in August with the same month a year earlier. Oregon and North Carolina are down by less than a tenth of a percent.
Are home values lower than five years ago anywhere?
No. The typical home value is higher than five years ago in all 50 states. The smallest gain is in Louisiana (+1.1%), then Idaho (+6.2%) and Colorado (+6.8%). The figures are not adjusted for inflation, so after inflation several states have lost ground.
What do hot, warm, cool and cold housing markets mean?
They compare each state with the national market on three signals: the share of listings with a price cut, the days from listing to a pending sale, and the change in homes for sale from a year ago. Hot means none of the three points cooler than the nation, warm one, cool two, cold all three. Right now 2 states are hot, 21 warm, 20 cool and 7 cold.
Does a cold housing market mean prices are falling?
Not necessarily. 3 of the 7 cold states have lower values than a year ago; 4 are still rising, led by Oklahoma at +2.8%. A cold market means buyers have more leverage than buyers nationally: more listings, more price cuts and slower sales. Prices usually respond to that slowly.